Welcome to issue 102 of Credit Insurance News Digest. The industry newsletter devoted to the global trade credit insurance industry. 
This issue is sponsored by Tinubu Square. 

Index
 
PLUS: This month's feature: AI Delivers A Paradigm Shift For Credit Management by Sébastien Meric, Chief Innovation Officer at Tinubu Square.
Credit Insurance News
Trade credit insurers pay out a record £1 million a day to help UK firms stay afloat. According to new figures released by the Association of British Insurers (ABI), trade credit insurers paid out a record £92 million (approx. £1 million every day) during the second quarter of the year. This is the highest quarterly figure since the ABI started collecting this data in 2007, and reflects the number of claims from firms impacted by the collapse of Carillion in January. Mark Shepherd, the ABI’s Assistant Director and Head of Property, Commercial and Specialist Lines, commented “Never has the importance of trade credit insurance been greater – the survival of any business could be at risk without it. Yet with 13,000 policies in force there remains a significant protection gap with too many firms operating at the mercy of non-payment of debts.” To read the ABI's news release go to https://www.abi.org.uk/news/news-articles/2018/09/the-carillion-effect-trade-credit-insurers-pay-out-a-record-1-million-a-day-to-help-uk-firms-stay-afloat/.
Debenhams under more pressure as trade credit insurer cuts cover to suppliers. Retail Gazette has reported that Atradius has stopped all of its credit cover for Debenhams’ suppliers ahead of reported fears over the department store’s health in the run-up to Christmas. “Regrettably, we understand Atradius is reducing cover as a result of repeated press speculation about Debenhams,” a spokesperson for Debenhams told the press. “We are managing this ‎with our suppliers and continue to maintain more than adequate headroom on our facilities,” they added. The move comes just a few weeks after Sir Philip Green’s Arcadia business had its credit insurance cut roughly in half by Euler Hermes (see directly below). To read Retail Gazette's article go to https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/10/debenhams-pressure-insurer-cuts-cover-suppliers/.
Trade credit insurers are reportedly planning to cut cover for Arcadia Group. Drapers has published an article, 'Arcadia’s credit insurance 'to be cut', which reports that trade credit insurers are reportedly planning to cut cover for Arcadia Group, amid continued tough trading conditions on the high street. Euler Hermes has written to clients in the past fortnight, The Sunday Times reports, saying that it plans to reduce cover by around half, between the point of manufacture and sale. In a note sent to suppliers seen by The Sunday Times, Euler Hermes said: “Whilst the group remains profitable and cash-generative, the latest accounts for the year to August 2017 demonstrate a continued decline in revenues and profitability from continuing operations." To read Drapers' article go to https://www.drapersonline.com/news/arcadias-credit-insurance-to-be-cut/7032278.article.
Trade credit insurers reported to have "put pressure on another high street name." Insurance Business has reported that stationery chain Paperchase is "crying foul" after new contracts with suppliers are not being afforded protection anymore by Euler Hermes (as named in The Sunday Telegraph). Atradius and Coface are also said to have made adjustments. “We are disappointed Euler Hermes has reduced credit insurance,” The Sunday Telegraph quoted Paperchase as saying. “We don’t think it is fair and we think they should reverse it . . .We have been around for 50 years and plan to be for another 50.” The case of Paperchase is the latest in a series that has seen retailers faced with reduced credit insurance cover. To read Insurance Business' article go to https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/uk/news/breaking-news/insurers-put-pressure-on-another-high-street-name-111400.aspx.
Trade credit insurers "not a lender of last resort". Drapers has published an article, 'Is fashion facing a credit crisis?' which investigates whether the current risk-averse environment is killing fashion retailers’ ability to do business. Patrick O’Brien, UK Retail Research Director for GlobalData, noted that any lack of confidence that credit insurers show starts to echo or get magnified, potentially resulting in businesses which are still solid businesses facing a cash crunch. However, speaking off the record, one credit insurance provider stressed to Drapers; "We are actually on risk for quite a considerable time after a policy stops because we insure stock that has already been delivered." The source continued: “We are there to provide a resource for suppliers but we are not a lender of last resort.” To read Draper's article go to https://www.drapersonline.com/news/is-fashion-facing-a-credit-crisis/7032441.article.
The trade credit insurance landscape "is in the eye of the storm". In a recent CRN article, Mike Stott, an insurance broker at Rycroft Associates, noted that in light of numerous high-street retailers and construction giant Carillion folding, the credit insurance landscape "is in the eye of the storm". Mr Stott explained: "Credit insurers only have so much capacity that they can write on businesses" . . . A lot of people are going to the frontline underwriters - like Atradius, Euler Hermes and Coface - to buy cover and then they find out further down the line that limits are being pulled or reduced." He also noted: "We are beginning to see more people coming to a market where financial figures aren't great - which also reduces capacity - more people buying insurance because they are worried and fewer players to provide the cover . . . That means ultimately there is a capacity drain on the market." To read CRN's article go to https://www.channelweb.co.uk/crn-uk/news/3063216/beta-distribution-hopeful-of-restoring-insurance-cover.
New product aims to 'plug the gaps' in trade credit insurance. TradeCrediTech has recently announced the launch of the TCT Terminal, a new broker platform to enable trade credit brokers to obtain gap cover on their client’s existing whole turnover policies. The TCT Terminal works on an invoice-by-invoice basis, priced in real-time, with the risk covered and locked into a specific invoice. Flemming Bengtsen, CEO at TradeCrediTech, commented: “We have had a tremendous response from the broker community. We’ve seen huge demand for gap cover as well as an alternative to single risk policies that can be priced, quoted and sold in minutes.” In addition, through the TCT Terminal brokers can refer clients to the Nimbla platform which integrates with cloud accounting allowing clients to self-serve while retaining commission. For an explanatory video go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adJFxyUsZCM.
Note: Tradecreditech is currently accepting early adopters of the TCT Terminal at a zero- onboarding fee. To read more about it, please go to www.tradecreditech.com or click on the advert on this page.
Signs that trade credit insurance rates are beginning to harden. A Treasury Today article, 'Credit where it’s due' has reported that while corporate insolvencies are leaving many suppliers with unpaid bills, the cost and availability of trade credit insurance cover has improved significantly in recent years and the industry is attracting additional players on both sides of the Atlantic (most recently Ascot in the US). Trevor Williams, QBE Insurance’s Head of Credit and Surety for European operations, commented: “Trade credit has always been an ultra-competitive insurance market and no more so than the past three to five years." Looking ahead, he notes that while credit insurance rates are at a ten-year low, recent corporate failures and a high number of claims paid by insurers indicate that they could begin to harden. To read Treasury Today's article go to http://treasurytoday.com/2018/09/credit-where-its-due-ttti.
Trade credit insurer warns of a bumpy road for the British automotive sector. Insurance Business has reported that Atradius has warned of a bumpy road for the British automotive sector. Citing economic uncertainty amid the ongoing talks between the UK and the European Union, the credit insurer reported a 6% slide in new car registrations in the first half of 2018 as well as a significant decline in investment to £347 million in the period from 2016’s £1.7 billion. This year is also forecast to witness an industry-wide rise in non-payments and insolvencies. “Tom Danson, Head of Commercial for the Atradius Midlands region. commented: “The industry has not only been impacted by uncertainty caused by the government’s plans to cut emission targets but also by the limbo of the ongoing Brexit negotiations." To read Insurance Business' article go to https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/uk/news/auto-motor/trade-credit-insurer-warns-of-bumpy-road-for-one-uk-sector-111590.aspx.
Global trade may fall by 50% if the US and China fail to resolve tariff issues. According to new research by Euler Hermes, global trade growth could halve by 2020 should the US and China fail to agree to halt the increase in import tariffs. The US has already implemented a 10% tariff on US$200 billion of Chinese imports with China retaliating with tariffs on US$60 billion of goods. However, US tariffs on Chinese goods could increase to 25% should the two countries fail to agree a deal before 2019, and Euler Hermes predicts that "in this ‘trade feud’ scenario" global trade growth could then decelerate from roughly 4% y/y to 2% y/y by 2020. The average US import tariff now stands at 5.2%, the highest level since the 1980s and compares to an average of 3.5% before the latest tariffs were imposed. To read Euler Hermes' news release go to https://www.eulerhermes.co.uk/newsroom/180920-us-china-trade-tariffs-back-to-the-1980s.html.
Central & Eastern European (CEE) insolvencies: The good times are over. Coface's latest research has warned that although the CEE region has seen improved economic activity in recent years, the favourable business environment has been insufficient to drive an improvement in companies' liquidity. In 2017, the overall number of insolvencies increased by 6.4%, a reversal of the trend shown in recent years, (6% and 14% decrease in 2016 and 2015 respectively) and more countries were affected. Nine countries reported a higher volume of insolvencies (Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, and Slovenia), with only five countries recording a decrease (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Slovakia, and Ukraine). For 2018, Coface forecasts that the average number of insolvencies rise by +10.4%, with still more countries recording an increase in proceedings. To read Coface's news release go to https://www.coface.com/News-Publications/News/Central-Eastern-European-insolvencies-The-good-times-are-over.
Rising protectionism to hit marine, trade credit insurance. Swiss Re has published a report 'Protectionism on the rise, and here to stay', which warns that any future decline in trade caused by increasing global protectionism would negatively impact marine and trade credit insurance premium growth. According to Swiss Re, a 1% decline in world trade would reduce marine cargo premium growth by 0.89%, marine hull premiums by 0.8% and would lower trade credit premiums by 0.67%. The report also suggests that another area that could become problematic for insurers and reinsurers in a world increasingly trending towards bilateral rather than multilateral trade agreements, is the risk of fragmented international regulations. To read Swiss Re's report go to http://institute.swissre.com/research/overview/economic_insights/EconomicInsights_Protectionism.html.
Fewer businesses in Eastern Europe are offering credit to customers. Atradius' latest Payment Practices Barometer for Eastern Europe has found that the proportion of B2B credit sales in Eastern Europe has decreased from an average of 40.3% in 2017 to 36.9% this year. Businesses in Hungary are the most inclined to offer credit terms (with an average of 57.6% of B2B sales made on credit), although even here credit sales are at a lower level than a year ago. In contrast, businesses in Romania are the least willing to offer credit terms with an average of just 17.7% of B2B sales transacted on credit. The report also notes that although Eastern Europe is forecast to grow a steady 3% this year,  momentum will ease to 2.5% in 2019. This, along with a longer DSO, is forecast to weigh on liquidity, potentially triggering an increase in trade credit risk. To read Atradius' report go to https://atradiuscollections.com/global/reports/payment-practices-barometer-eastern-europe-2018.html.
Country-specific Payment Practices Barometers are also available for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey.
Political risks are on the rise in Asia. According to Coface’s latest Political Risk Index, Asia's risk ranking is 45% - above the world average of 35% but lower than Sub Saharan Africa, the Middle East & North Africa, Central Europe and Latin America. Within the region, South Asia has the highest score for political risks, followed by Southeast Asia, while East Asia reported the fastest acceleration in political risks over the last decade - particularly in China. Coface notes that much of the development of political risks in the region over recent years has been linked to rising political fragilities "aggravated by a proliferation of less democratic styles of governance." To read Coface's news release go to https://www.coface.com/News-Publications/News/Political-risks-in-Asia-are-on-the-rise.
Free International Debt Collections Handbook. The latest issue of Atradius Collections' International Debt Collections Handbook, an annual publication that explains the diversity and complexity of country-specific debt collection approaches in detail, is now available. This issue includes the different stages of amicable settlement, financial regulations around collections, legal proceedings and insolvency procedures in 46 countries. Colombia and Saudi Arabia are two new countries featured. To download a free copy go to https://atradiuscollections.com/uk/reports/international-debt-collections-handbook.html.
Changes at Canopius. GTR (Global Trade Review) has reported two changes at Canopius. In a note sent out to brokers, Bernie de Haldevang, who was brought in to lead the speciality division in mid-2016, commented that the company is reorganising its two specialty teams, merging the credit and political risk (CPR) and excess of loss trade credit (XTC) teams into one. “This will provide our brokers and clients with the benefit of further close integration of the two lines of business, which are already closely aligned, and enable the joint business to offer shared skills more effectively,” he commented. The combined team will continue to report to Mr de Haldevang. It is also understood that Will Clark, formerly Canopius' Head of Trade Credit, has now left the company. Prior to Canopius, Mr Clark worked at AIG for almost six years and has previously held senior roles at Santander, Lloyds Bank, Central Trust, Atradius and HSBC. To read GTR's article go to https://www.gtreview.com/news/on-the-move/will-clark-leaves-canopius/.
IAAF launches automotive trade credit insurance schemes. AMOnline has reported that the Independent Automotive Aftermarket Federation (IAAF) has introduced two new trade credit insurance schemes from Financial and Credit Insurance Services Limited which are exclusively available through the IAAF and for its members. One of the schemes is specifically designed for SMEs with turnovers of up to £5 million; the second is tailored for businesses with a turnover in excess of £5 million. Both insurance schemes cover 90% of the value of insured losses. IAAF’s chief executive Wendy Williamson said: “Trade credit insurance can be invaluable to any organisation, made even more evident in January with the collapse of Carillion which saw an estimated £100m+ owed to uninsured creditors." To read AMOnline's article go to https://www.am-online.com/news/finance/2018/09/20/iaaf-launches-automotive-trade-credit-insurance-schemes.
Trade Credit Brokers rebrands under Willis Towers Watson name. Reinsurance News has reported that Trade Credit Brokers has announced that it has rebranded to Willis Towers Watson Trade Credit and Surety, becoming Ireland’s largest Trade Credit insurance specialist. Highlighting the value of trade credit insurance, Nigel Birney, Head of Trade Credit and Political Risk Northern Ireland at Willis Towers Watson, commented: "You only have to look at recent news headlines to see the number of businesses which have been saved due to having Trade Credit Insurance in place when a business further up the supply chain fails. No-one is immune no matter how safe they may seem.” To read Reinsurance News' article go to https://www.reinsurancene.ws/trade-credit-brokers-rebrands-under-willis-towers-watson-name/.
Trade credit insurance and the ICT sector. A new sector analysis by Karl Mckiernan, Underwriter at QBE, provides an overview of the current ICT sector and notes that although historically, insolvency rates in the sector have been relatively low (with this reflected in trade credit insurance premiums), more recently the industry has witnessed challenges. This includes rising costs, faltering demand, heightened credit risk, as well as a number of high-profile insolvencies (including Maplin in February 2018 and Misco UK in October 2017). The report also notes that due to the often low margin nature of this industry, and typically large trade debtor balances, credit insurance is used by a high proportion of businesses and is regarded as an important expense. For QBE, Mr Mckiernan stresses that despite current the current environment, "This continues to be an area where we see opportunities to grow." To read QBE's article go to https://qbeeurope.com/news-and-events/blog-articles/multiple-challenges-ahead-for-ict-market/.
Tokio Marine HCC launches new Trade Credit IT platform. Following two years of development and 'significant' investment, Tokio Marine HCC has announced the launch of a brand new Trade Credit IT platform. The project also brings with it a number of changes to back office and customer/broker-facing processes, including a new online portal with an improved look and functionality - including online declarations and additional information on credit limits. New systems have also been implemented for Underwriting, Finance, Claims, data warehouse and document production. Caroline Davies, New Business Manager - Credit at Tokio Marine HCC, told Credit Insurance News: ”this will take us forward into the future and support our growth as a key player in the trade credit insurance market. To take a look go to https://tc.tmhcc.com/.
Shari’ah-compliant export credit gets a boost. CPI Financial has reported that Etihad Credit Insurance (ECI), UAE's Federal export credit company, has signed a MoU with the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment - a member of the Islamic Development Bank Group, with the aim of establishing a long-lasting relationship for cooperation in trade credit insurance, as well as exchange of information and knowledge. Massimo Falcioni, Chief Executive Officer of ECI, commented: "Under the memorandum, ICIEC will provide reinsurance capacity and Shariah-compliant export credit insurance solutions aimed at promoting the UAE’s non-oil exports, trade and strategic sectors development. To read CPI's Financial's article go to http://www.cpifinancial.net/news/post/46991/shariah-compliant-export-credit-gets-boost-under-new-agreement.
Marsh & McLennan to acquire Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group. Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc (MMC) has announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group plc. Through its Specialty business, JLT provides risk and insurance broking advice to energy, mining, healthcare, construction, marine, and aerospace sectors as well as in financial lines, political risk and trade credit. JLT was created in 1997 when Jardine Insurance Brokers plc merged with Lloyd Thompson Group plc. The firm now operates in 40 countries with particular strength in the UK and Australia as well as in key emerging markets across Asia and Latin America. To read MMC's news release go to https://www.marsh.com/uk/press-centre/marsh-and-mclennan-to-acquire-jardine-lloyd-thompson-group-plc.html.
TRAINING: STECIS Training Seminars 2019
Training and education on Trade Credit Insurance and Surety is provided by STECIS, the educational foundation endorsed by ICISA. STECIS promotes knowledge and professionalism in the technical theory and practice (case studies) of trade credit insurance and surety underwriting. This includes in-depth analysis of industry developments, the terminology and the current market.
STECIS is happy to announce that it will, as usual, organize two-day training seminars on Trade Credit Insurance and Surety on both basic and advanced levels in 2019.
The STECIS training seminars are two-day events which are highly interactive. They cover technical and practical knowledge on respectively Trade Credit Insurance and Surety Bonds, the theory of underwriting, in-depth analysis of industry developments, the terminology and the current market. In addition, participants are asked to review case studies.
The basic training seminars are on 9 and 10 April 2019 and are open to participants with limited experience. The advanced training seminars are set for 11 and 12 April 2019 and are suited to participants who have attended the basic training seminar or have more experience. The seminar fee is €2200 - and includes all training material, the welcome cocktail & all meals (dinners & lunches). Travel costs and any additional expenses (e.g. hotel room, phone, (mini) bar) are not included.
Please go to the STECIS website for more information on the training seminars and to download the registration forms: www.stecis.org.
New Appointments
Tinubu Square has announced that it has recruited three sales vice-presidents to grow its international presence. 
  • Ronan Cloarec joins as Vice-President of Receivables Finance Sales, Europe, based in Paris. His responsibility is to develop and manage bank accounts in Europe. He was formerly the Sales Director and Account Executive at Accenture France. 
  • Puneet Mehta is the new Vice-President of Receivables Finance Sales, APAC in Singapore. He was previously Senior Sales Manager at Oracle in Singapore.
  • Daniel Fitzgerald becomes Vice-President of Insurance Sales, North America, responsible for growing sales in the credit insurance and surety market in the region. He is based in New York and was previously Senior Sales Executive with Fico.
Gallagher has announced the appointment of Daniel Stewart as its new Head of Trade Credit. Mr Stewart joins from Marsh, where he was national practice leader for trade credit, responsible for the Midlands, north and Scotland. In July (see Credit Insurance News Digest: issue 101), Gallagher also hired Colin Cunningham, previously Marsh’s national sales leader for trade credit in the UK and Ireland, and Rachel Smailes.
Markel International has announced a new appointment and change in remit.
  • Senior Underwriter Simon Philpin’s role will now include managing new business development for Markel's trade credit operation across the UK and Europe. Mr Philpin will work closely with Arjan Van de Wall, Markel's Global Development Director.
  • Victoria Northedge has been appointed as assistant underwriter within the surety team to support Head of Surety Damian Manning and Senior Underwriter David Chandler.
CMR Insurance Services has reported that the success of their BIBA recommended Trade Credit Insurance scheme has resulted in the appointment of a further two BIBA Broker Relationship Managers.
  • Nigel Simkins, who 40 years of experience dealing with many and varied types of businesses most recently with a Peer to Peer funder. Nigel has always maintained a link with CMR during his career. 
  • Philip Hendy, who has worked in the credit insurance industry for 20 years and for many of its biggest names.
Atradius has announced that it has created a new and larger team to enhance its offering in the North West. Thomas Murphy and Chelcee Witkowski have joined Atradius as Business Development Managers alongside James Armitage and Lisa McMillan as Account Managers. They join Senior Business Development Manager Sally Nolan and Account Managers Sarah Seddon and Nicola Hinchliff. The team, which is based in Atradius’ Manchester Regional Hub, is headed up by Regional Manager Mike Rowan. 
BPL Global has announced the appointment of the newest Directeur to its French subsidiary, Lucia Petry. A former lawyer with two Master’s degrees - one in Industrial Property Law and the other in Public and Private European and International Law - Ms Petry joined BPL Global’s Paris branch, Berry Palmer & Lyle SA, in 2014. In her role as Directeur, she will continue to support BPL Paris’ French-based team while expanding her managerial and business development remits.
Business Information & Reports
The UK economy looks set to experience its second-weakest decade of average annual GDP growth on record. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has downgraded its growth expectations for the UK economy, forecasting GDP growth of just 1.1% for 2018 (down from 1.3%). The BCC has also lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 1.4% to 1.3%. This latest forecast implies that by 2020 the UK economy will have experienced its second-weakest decade of average annual GDP growth on record. The downgrades to the BCC's forecast have been largely driven by a weaker outlook for trade and investment. To read the BCC's news release go to https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2018/09/bcc-uk-growth-forecasts-downgraded-as-brexit-uncertainty-hits-investment-and-trade.
UK export growth falls to the lowest level since the Brexit vote. According to the latest European Export Index by BDO, UK export growth has slowed significantly and, this quarter, the UK was the worst performing of the largest five EU economies. The latest findings from the quarterly index also show that growth of UK exports has fallen for the sixth consecutive quarter and, at 95.6, is now creeping closer to the point of contraction (below 95.0). The index now sits at its lowest level since Q2 2016, when the UK voted to leave the EU, and marks a dramatic fall of 15.8 index points since Q1 2017. By comparison, European exporters have only experienced a slight cooling in their orders; BDO’s Export Growth Index for the EU fell to 99.7 in the third quarter of this year, down from 99.8 in Q2. To read BDO's news release go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2018/uk-export-growth-falls-to-lowest-level-since-brexit-vote.
Survey indicates that the UK High Street is in ‘drastic decline’. According to a new survey conducted on behalf of Close Brothers Asset Finance, the UK’s high streets are in freefall. Unusually, this view is shared across all areas measured, including region, sector and business size (turnover and employee numbers) with little variation between them. Three in every five of those surveyed feel it’s inevitable that the UK’s High Streets will eventually disappear altogether, leading to many businesses turning to digital marketplaces to promote their goods and services. Over a quarter admit to selling more online while a further 25% are actively seeking alternative sales channels to shore up their existing business model. To read Close Brothers Asset Finance's news release go to https://www.closeassetfinance.co.uk/industry-insights/uk-smes-high-street-drastic-decline.
The death of the UK High Street - 50% of all retail could be online by 2044. A new survey by Yomdel using retail sales data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has found that if online spending continues to grow at its current rate of 1.3% every year, a quarter of all retailing will be done online by 2024 and by 2044 half of all purchases will be carried online. By 2082, this figure increases to 100%. In reaction to these findings, Yomdel's Founder and CEO Andy Soloman, commented: “This research shows how prominent technology and the internet is becoming in our day-to-day shopping habits, and further innovation to the retail sector could even see the high street struggle to compete a lot sooner than these figures suggest." To read Yomdel's news release go to https://blog.yomdel.com/the-death-of-the-high-street.
The issue of poor payment practices continues to persist across Europe. According to research from the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), the vast majority (85%) of small firms that operate within European supply chains report being paid late. The FSB’s report, ‘Pay it Forward: Lessons and recommendations for Europe from the UK payment landscape’, reveals that despite positive steps, like the introduction of the Late Payment Directive, the issue of poor payment practices continues to persist across Europe. Despite the Directive’s rules on maximum payment terms of 60 days, the report shows that one in four (22%) small businesses report payments terms of over 60 days, while more than a third (37%) of FSB smaller suppliers say that their payment terms have actually increased over the last two years. To read the FSB's news release go to https://www.fsb.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/uk-small-businesses-call-on-european-commission-to-up-fight-to-end-late-payments-culture.
KPMG predicts UK growth of 0.6% in 2019 and 0.4% in 2020 in the event of a disorderly Brexit. According to KPMG UK’s latest quarterly Economic Outlook Report, the UK economy is set for modest growth if a positive Brexit deal can be reached with the EU. KPMG predicts that UK GDP will grow by 1.3% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2019 - albeit the lowest rate of growth since 2008 and 2009. However, If a disorderly Brexit were to occur, KPMG warns of a rapid slowing of growth to 0.6% in 2019 and 0.4% in 2020. The report also finds that Brexit uncertainty is not the only factor inhibiting growth. The manufacturing sector is still seeing low export levels despite the weakness of the pound, and retailers, in particular, continue to face a challenging environment. To read KPMG's news release go to https://home.kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2018/09/kpmg-predicts-modest-growth-if-friction-light-brexit-deal-achiev.html?cq_ck=1536586057871.
UK GDP growth projected to be 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018 according to PwC’s ‘nowcasting’ model. PwC’s nowcasting model, which uses machine learning techniques to produce more timely GDP estimates, suggests that UK growth could pick up to 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018. This would be up from 0.4% in the second quarter, but would imply a slight slowdown on the 0.6% growth rate seen in the three months to July. PwC predicts that growth in the third quarter would be driven by the services sector and a rebound in construction activity over the summer, whereas manufacturing has lost momentum in recent months. Looking ahead, PwC warns that UK growth could ease again to around 0.3-0.4% in the fourth quarter due to Brexit-related uncertainty dragging on business investment. To read PwC's news release go to https://www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/UK-GDP-growth-projected-to-be-0.5-in-the-third-quarter-of-2018-according-to-PwCs-nowcasting-model.html.
OECD sees global growth moderating as uncertainties intensify. According to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook, global economic expansion appears to have peaked, with diverging growth prospects worldwide and intensifying risks. Economic growth prospects are now slightly weaker across the board than anticipated in May, when the OECD released its latest Economic Outlook. In contrast to the broad-based expansion seen in the latter part of 2017 and earlier this year, the OECD now projects that the global economy will grow by 3.7% in both 2018 and 2019, with rising differences across countries. For example, for the UK, 1.3% growth is predicted in 2018, falling to 1.2% in 2019. To read the OECD's news release go to http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-sees-global-growth-moderating-as-uncertainties-intensify.htm.
© 2018 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Career Opportunities

Credit Insurance - Account Handler.
TL Dallas & Co Limited, Falkirk/Glasgow.
TL Dallas is one of the UK's leading independent Insurance Broking and Risk Management companies with offices throughout the UK.  We have a long and distinguished heritage and have been providing insurance services and solutions since 1919. We believe it is the relationships we have with our clients that allow us to fully understand their insurance requirements and our pursuit of continued service excellence is at the heart of all we do. Our people are key to our success and our values; Trust, Collaboration, Integrity and Commitment are ingrained into the TL Dallas culture and we pride ourselves on providing the very best advice and service to our clients!
An opportunity has arisen to join the Credit team as an Account Handler, based in either our Falkirk or Glasgow office.
The ideal candidate will have Trade Credit experience. However, those with banking, credit management, insurance or other related professions, will also be considered. As will business related degree level applicants.
The Role
The role will involve, providing support to Directors/Account Executives in the team, to ensure we maintain high service levels, and ensure we meet and exceed, our client’s needs and expectations.
Main Responsibilities
  • Working with Directors/Account Executives on all aspects associated with client retention, growth and maintenance of valued relationships.
  • With guidance, interface with clients and underwriters and be able to provide support and understanding of all day to day aspects of policy management.
  • Negotiating with insurers the credit limit requirements of clients and prospects
  • Information gathering, analysis and preparation of proposal, renewal or new business reports
  • Assist with overdue reporting processes and/or claims notifications to underwriters
  • Work with Directors/Account Executives on effective control of revenue and other data management systems used. 
  • Adhere fully to TLD business processes, systems and procedures
  • Ensure complete adherence with other training and compliance requirements specified by management or the company
Candidates Skills & Competencies
  • Strong interpersonal and communication skills
  • Ability to work in a fast-paced environment, both autonomously as well as within an established team
  • Needs to be highly organised and be able to monitor and manage multiple tasks, with a proven ability to work in a demanding environment
  • Must be a flexible team player and skilled in developing and maintaining relationships at all levels
  • Can listen and acquire new skills, always ready to learn.
  • Able to evidence sound commercial and financial awareness
  • Demonstrate a clear understanding of regulatory issues within an insurance or a financial services organisation
  • Excellent customer service skills and has an eye for detail and accurate data entry
  • Proficient in use of Microsoft Office and knowledge and competence with the use of Acturis would be a benefit. 
If you think you are the perfect candidate for this role, then please submit your CV to Credit@tldallas.com before the closing date of 14/10/2018. Salary Competitive depending on experience/plus other flexible company benefits.
Events & Offers
Supply Chain Finance Masterclass, 16 October 2018. London
Attend this advanced and comprehensive workshop to gain a practical understanding of the characteristics of the market and sector, an appreciation of the challenges of working capital management in the supply chain, the various forms, and how supply chain finance can operate to the benefit of all parties. Covering an in-depth insight into the market drivers, types, operations and benefits of SCF, this masterclass enables participants to: 
  • Understand the decision drivers & financial benefits for Buyers and Suppliers
  • Determine the decision drivers for Banks in offering SCF Programs
  • Explore how to genuinely make a success out of a SCF Program
  • Held ahead of the Supply Chain Finance Forum in London, the masterclass will provide your company with a comprehensive overview of unlocking liquidity through supply chain finance 
BCR are delighted to offer Credit Insurance News members a 10% discount on booking. Register now using code CIN18 at www.bcrpub.com/events/.
https://bcrpub.com/events/supply-chain-finance-masterclass.
Supply Chain Finance Forum, 17 October 2018. London 
BCR’s inaugural Supply Chain Finance Forum in London focuses on the industry’s emerging evolutionary trends and in particular the move towards targeting the largely untapped mid-cap buyers market. The forum will showcase innovations within supply chain finance for the mid-market, new arbitrage opportunities this market can provide, and review developing markets such as Asia and other high interest rate regions.
BCR are delighted to offer Credit Insurance News members a 10% discount on booking. Register now using code CIN18 at www.bcrpub.com/events/.
https://bcrpub.com/events/supply-chain-finance-forum.
Alternative & Receivables Finance Forum, 14 November 2018. London
Alternative & Receivables Finance Forum tracks the transformation of receivables and invoice finance; showcasing the most successful new entrants to the market, examining the future of technology-enabled funding models, and driving the conversation on alternative finance for SMEs. 
This is a unique gathering, where you can network with established receivables finance providers and ‘alternative’ SME funders and find out how the competitive landscape for commercial finance is changing. 
The comprehensive programme provides insights into the priorities influencing SMEs’ financial choices and showcases the latest technology-enabled distribution models. 
BCR are delighted to offer Credit Insurance News members a 10% discount on booking. Register now using code CIN18 at www.bcrpub.com/events.
https://bcrpub.com/events/alternative-receivables-finance-forum-0.
TXF Asia 2018: Export, Agency & Project Finance, 14 & 15 November. W Hotel, Hong Kong.
TXF Asia is your largest flagship event for export & project finance in the Asia-Pacific! We will be bringing together more stakeholders than ever, with 400 borrowers, exporters, project sponsors, developers, financiers, government representatives, insurers, law firms, ECAs and more set to take part.
WHY ATTEND
  • Hear from over 15 ECAs on the latest products they are offering to help grow your business. Already confirmed: NEXI, Sinosure, ECGC, EFIC, SACE, Export Development Canada, EKN, Bpifrance Assurance Export, Finnvera, Credendo… with more to join!
  • Pick the brains of some of the biggest borrowers, including: Adaro Power, CLP Holdings, PT PLN Persero, Agritrade International and UPC Renewables
  • Get the development angle from DFIs working in Asia, including Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility (CGIF) , International Finance Corporation, Asian Development Bank, OPIC and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA)
  • With our dedicated Project Finance Stream, get all the information you need on the latest infrastructure and power projects in Asia.
  • Meet with some of the most influential exporters in Asia, including: Alcatel Submarine Networks, Chiyoda Corporation, Danieli & C. Officine Meccaniche S.p.A , GE China, Nokia, Huawei and Ferostaal
Visit the website for full details
Readers of Credit Insurance News can now book at a 15% discount. Please book online here and enter the discount code CIN15. This offer expires Friday 5th October.
Bridging The Trade Finance Gap, Delivering Paperless Trade,15 November 2018. London.
The International Chamber of Commerce in the United Kingdom is delighted to invite you to the conference“Bridging The Trade Finance Gap, Delivering Paperless Trade”in London on November 15th. For the first time this conference will bring trade and supply chain finance ‘under one roof’ for a discussion on how to foster more collaboration and innovation to bridge the trade finance gap and deliver paperless trade. Join ICC, Falcon Group and a number of world class speakers for this great event! For further information and full agenda click here: earlybirdtickets.
Supply Chain Finance Summit, 24-25 January 2019. Amsterdam.
Now in its 4th year, this in-depth event tracks the transformation of supply chain finance (SCF); showcasing the latest innovations within the industry for both domestic and cross- border financing, examining the future of technology-enabled supply chain models, and driving the conversation on increasing access of SCF for SMEs and emerging markets.
As event partners, Credit Insurance News can offer their members a 10% discount on your delegate pass rate. To register please follow this link https://bcrpub.com/events/supply- chain-finance-summit-0. The Credit Insurance News delegate discount code is CIN19– please utilise the code upon booking.
Receivables Finance International Convention. 6-7 March 2019, London.
Receivables finance industry experts, government agencies, financiers, FinTechs, alternative finance platforms, banks, insurers, and corporates will be gathering in London for the 19th annual Receivables Finance International Convention (“RFIx”).
RFIx is the receivables finance industry's flagship event, which brings together market leaders and new entrants, providing an essential update on the latest invoice financing trends, market challenges, and financial innovation, as well as excellent networking opportunities. The 19th event will also include an Awards Gala Dinner to celebrate the RFIx Awards 2019.
As event partners, Credit Insurance News can offer their members a 10% discount on your delegate pass rate. To register please follow this link https://bcrpub.com/events/19th-rfix- receivables-finance-international-convention. The Credit Insurance News delegate discount code is CIN19– please utilise the code upon booking.
About the Sponsor: Tinubu Square
Tinubu Square stands out for delivering SaaS software and services across all parts of the Trade Credit Industry sector and throughout the world. 
Founded in 2000 by current senior management, Tinubu Square is a software vendor, enabler of the Credit Insurance, Surety and Trade Finance digital transformation, with over 15 years of sustainable growth.
Tinubu Square enables organizations across the world to significantly reduce their exposure to risk and their financial, operational and technical costs with best-in-class technology solutions and services.
Tinubu Square provides SaaS solutions and services to different businesses including credit insurers, receivables financing organizations and multinational corporations. As a fintech innovation flagship, Tinubu Square has redesigned trade credit risk management through its state-of-the-art technological approach, which integrates data & decision analytics, and process automation expertise.
Thanks to its highly experienced team of credit analysts, Tinubu Square provides tailor-made credit risk assessments and recovery services on any company in any country. Tinubu Square has built an ecosystem of customers in over 20 countries worldwide and has a global presence with offices in Paris, London, New York, Montreal and Singapore.
Take a look at what Tinubu’s credit insurer customers, including QBE, EDC, The Bond&Credit Company and The Guarantee have to say about how their organisations have been supported. Click here.
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